This is my tennis blog, Lefty Advantage. I am a diehard Roger Federer fan and think he is the undisputed greatest player ever. I love tennis more than anything else in the world, and have played for 11 years - the tennis court is like my second home. I make regular tournament updates and comment on mostly everything to do with men's tennis, so check back regularly whenever there is tennis being played!

Monday, August 25, 2014

2014 US Open Preview

The tennis calendar's final major kicks off in New York on Monday, and the draw is an interesting one.

In the top half, top seed Novak Djokovic may have to go through one of Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals, and one of Stan Wawrinka and Milos Raonic in the semifinals. On the bottom half, 2nd seed Roger Federer may have to defeat Grigor Dimitrov and David Ferrer successively to make his 26th Grand Slam final.

The big hooplah when the draw came out seemed to be how stacked Djokovic's half was, with Wawrinka, Raonic, Murray, Tsonga, Isner, and Nishikori. While it definitely is the tougher half of the draw, we all must remember that it is only the pre-tournament draw and no matches have been played.

If Djokovic makes the final having to go through Isner, Murray/Tsonga, and Wawrinka/Raonic, that would be a great accomplishment. But there is certainly a chance that he won't have to do that. Isner could fall to Kukushkin, Llodra, or Kohlschreiber. Murray has a tough path to the 4th round where he would play Tsonga, as he might have to go through Haase, Stepanek, and 31st seed Fernando Verdasco (who nearly beat him at Wimbledon last year). If Tsonga displays the kind of form he showed in Toronto, he should make the 4th round without dropping more than a set, but with him these days you never know.

Federer's side definitely looks to be the easier of the two before the tournament starts, but I would really caution placing his nametag in the final slot just yet. We have seen many times a player who has been glossed over as a supposed simple win come out big and pull off a shocking upset. Federer is too experienced to not be only focused on his first round match against Australian Marinko Matosevic.  If or when he gets by that, only then will he look toward the 3rd round. And so on.

There are a few examples we have seen of Federer in Grand Slams where he faces tough matches in the early rounds where few expect a stiff challenge. Maybe the most notable one was the 1st round at Wimbledon in 2010 when Alejandro Falla nearly shocked the tennis world. But there have also been other instances. Who came closest to denying his 7th Wimbledon title two years ago? Not Djokovic or Murray, but Julien Benneteau. Who came closest to knocking him out during his run in New York in 2008 to win his 13th major?  Again, not Djokovic or Murray, but Igor Andreev in the 4th round. Andreev also gave Federer quite a scare in the 1st round of the Australian Open in 2010 when he nearly took a two sets to one lead.

The point is, don't count your chickens before they hatch. That is a saying seemingly as old as time itself, but it remains a popular one for a reason.

Yes, given Federer's current form, he is the heavy favourite to come through that half. But he knows it won't be easy, and he still has to win 6 matches to play for the trophy. Ivo Karlovic is dangerous should he be faced across the net in the 3rd round. Yes, the big man can't return well and Roger returns his serve better than anybody (arguable), facing him is always stressful to an extent as you know losing one service game can cost you the whole set.

If it isn't Karlovic, then it could be Jarkko Nieminen, who is a steady vet with the experience to make it a tough match. Roberto Bautista-Agut is on the up'n'up and he has the type of flat hitting that could trouble Roger. If it isn't Dimitrov in the quarters, it could be Gael Monfils, who has proven to be a dangerous opponent the last few years. In the semis, of course we would all like to see David Ferrer, but it could be Tomas Berdych, who has always given Roger difficulty especially at the majors. It could also be Ernests Gulbis, who has already beaten Roger this year at the French Open.

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Now, having said all of this, I do expect Federer to make the final - I just hate it when people start talking about the true difficulty of a draw before the tournament even starts - when we have no idea who will be in the 4th round, quarters, and semis. As I wrote on Twitter - "tough" draws can fall through and "easy" draws can be filled with unexpected threats.

Given the way Roger has played this whole year, and especially since Wimbledon, I think he is in the perfect mindset to capture his 18th major title. He has played 10 matches the last few weeks, but with those matches, five of which were 3-set wins, comes the confidence and assurance that he can get it done when it matters most, even if he hasn't been sharp on the day or had some blips on a usually clean radar. Though he was tired after the Cincinnati win last week, he has had his chance to rest, and we must remember that this is a Slam, so he will have a day off between matches and even two days off at one point I believe (but don't quote me on that). And as I have re-iterated numerous times to anyone that would listen, there is a day off between the semis and finals this year. So even if he was to have a tough 4 or 5-setter in the semis against Tomas Berdych or David Ferrer, he wouldn't be at a disadvantage like he would have last year.

And just in case you are superstitious, there is virtually zero chance of Federer being put on Louis Armstrong Stadium where he lost last year to Robredo. With Nadal out, he will be the main attraction every day he's playing.

It should be a great US Open and by the end of it I so hope that we can see Roger lift that trophy for a 6th time. For me as a fan, it would probably be even sweeter than his last Wimbledon win, considering the struggles he went through last year and how hard he has worked to play better this year.

Kyle.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Federer wins 6th Cincinnati Masters

He finally won a big title!

Since Federer won his 5th Cincinnati Masters title two seasons ago over Novak Djokovic, he had gone 2-9 in final matches since. Last week in Toronto he lost playing horrid baseline tennis. In the Wimbledon final, he should have lost in 4 and so nearly pulled the rabbit out of the hat. In Monte Carlo, he lost a 2nd set tiebreak to Wawrinka that would have won him the match. In Indian Wells, he lost a 3rd set breaker. In Brisbane, he lost a tight but sloppy match to longtime friend and foe, Lleyton Hewitt. In Basel last fall, he lost a tight 3-set match to Juan Martin del Potro. In Rome, he was overmatched by Nadal. At the World Tour Finals in 2012, he lost a close one to Djokovic in straights. And finally, in Basel he lost a 3rd set breaker to del Potro.

In all but one of those 9 finals, he had his chances to win. Some he maybe should have won. But through this bad history since his last Masters title, he managed to win in a hard-fought battle against a man he had never lost to, David Ferrer. Even with the man across the net having never won the final point against him, it was a big match, and Roger knew it.

The Swiss started the final pretty well, and broke the Spaniard's serve midway through the set. Things got tight for him when he went down 0-40 at 5-3 but he managed to save those break points and eventually held. At that point, I doubt many envisioned the second set going the way it did, with Ferrer winning it 6-1 after taking a shocking 5-0 lead. It was even more surprising because Roger had break points in the opening game. But once the set was out of reach, Roger saved his energy and didn't spent too much of it trying to win a virtually unwinnable set. It was important, however, that he held his serve at 0-5 so he could start the 3rd set on serve. He saved a few break points, but he did win it, and that would make a big difference.

The difference between the 2nd and 3rd sets was almost immediate. In the 2nd, Ferrer was dictating the rallies by hitting his heavy inside-out forehand to the Federer backhand, getting it to kick up and forcing short balls. In the third, Federer wasn't letting that happen as he started hitting bigger, cleaner, and more aggressively. He got the crucial break at 2-1, and emphatically held. One might have been worried when he didn't take his break chances at 2-4 to go up the double break, but they would have worried for nothing, as he held comfortably and broke to take his biggest tournament win in the last 24 month on the dot.

Credit to Ferrer, because he played gritty and persistent attacking tennis, and thoroughly deserved the 2nd set (and he could have gotten back on serve in the 1st to boot). Sure, Roger made some bad decisions in the 2nd, especially when he gave up the second break by serve-volleying every point, but it wouldn't be fair to not point out the quality of Ferrer's groundstrokes and return.

In my observation, Roger looked a little bereft of rest (try saying that 10 times straight), but he fought through that. He lost a lopsided second set and he could have kept dwelling on it, but he didn't, and from the tennis he played in set three, you wouldn't have thought he lost the second picking up just a single game.

In my opinion, that is the difference between Roger the last few weeks (and this whole year) versus last year and even years like 2010 and 2011. If he plays a bad set, or just gets outplayed, he pushes the reset button and doesn't panic. We saw him get pushed around in the second set from the baseline, so he went more aggressive and didn't let himself get pinned in that backhand corner hitting shoulder-high balls. He even ran around a backhand return to smoke a forehand return twice in the game in which he broke to give him the third set cushion. In the second set he was being reactive to Ferrer's play, but in the third he was most certainly being proactive.

Overall, I couldn't be happier for Roger - he definitely deserved to get one of those "bigger" trophies, as he put it. He's played very well throughout this season and hasn't always gotten the breaks, and perhaps the best of all now is that the win springboards him into great form heading into the US Open. And this year more than others, that could be crucial, depending on how Djokovic plays and if Nadal even plays at all. Winning the US Open would be so wonderful, a culmination of the almost year's worth of solid results he's been getting.

Allez, come on, chum jetze ..... Roger.

Saturday, August 16, 2014

Federer Downs Murray in Cincinnati

Let's call this my return.....

Roger Federer advanced to the semifinals of the Western and Southern Open in Cincinnati with a 63 75 win over struggling Andy Murray in a match where he recovered from a *4-1 deficit to win six of the last seven games against the 2013 Wimbledon champion.

Roger said after the match he felt he got a little lucky, and perhaps he did. But let me tell you this - with the way Roger has been attacking the net recently (even if it hasn't always been successful), he has earned his luck by putting constant pressure on his opponents. Coming to net as much as he has been doing has been a very valuable part of his game this season, not only because it limits the amount of long points he plays, but because of the gradual effects it has on the guy across the net. He may get passed once, twice, or five times, but attacking the forecourt so much asks the question.  As the net player, you ask "you passed me there, can you do it again?"

Murray, who is one of the best passers in the game, yet even he felt the pressure of Roger coming in so much. That's the value of rushing your opponent, and that's what the classic serve-volleyers like Edberg, Sampras, Becker, Rafter, and McEnroe understood so well.

Roger's volleying has been curious however the last two weeks. His net play overall hasn't been horrible, but he definitely doesn't look completely sure of his ability when he approaches to hit a putaway volley, usually down the line. However, when he comes in and is forced to hit a low shoestring volley or half-volley, and then is forced to hit a second volley, he's done very well. So to say that his volleying overall has been terrible would be wrong in my opinion, but it still is curious that he is struggling with the simpler volleys but is doing better with the tougher ones. It could be the racquet, or just a matter of thinking one thing and doing another, but he has to get it fixed before it costs him a match.

Stefan Edberg's greatest effect on Federer's game has been his quicker approach to the net and better positioning. He seems to have taught Roger that you don't have to finish it off in one swing. Whenever Roger comes in and hits a volley that hasn't won the point, he's been doing a great job at staying close to the net and not giving up ground. We saw that against Monfils when he hit a heavy drop volley, stayed strong at net, and cut off a cross-court pass for a great reflex volley.

Federer's semifinal opponent will be Milos Raonic, a man who he is 5-0 against, though he did have three deciding-set wins in 2012 against the big-serving Canadian. Simply put, if Roger holds serve, he will have a great chance of winning. Raonic has only broken once in the 15 sets they have contested, or 1 out of 79 attempts. Roger's serve looks mostly on song so I don't think he'll struggle to hold if he is getting a good first serve percentage.

From now to the end of the year I'll be writing more often. I apologize for stopping, as I was dealing with some personal issues in my life and needed to focus on other things.

Friday, March 21, 2014

2014 Federer Miami Preview

Hey all,

I apologize for not writing anything about Indian Wells, where Federer had a great week and just fell short in the final against Djokovic. Before I start with Miami, I want to talk a little bit about that tournament, for Fed, even if it is late.

Coming off the Dubai win, it was important for Roger to have a good tournament in California, especially because he could gain points after his quarterfinal exit a year ago. He probably got a little fortunate that Nadal lost in the 3rd round to Dolgopolov, as they would have faced off in the semifinals, but as they say, all you can control in a tennis tournament is your own matches.

By making the semifinals against Dolgopolov, it was the 7th consecutive tournament where he made at least the semis - dating back to Basel last fall. That kind of consistency is what was missing for nearly all of 2013 for a variety of reasons. It's nice to see Roger get a string of positive results, because in my view building up that confidence and momentum now is the only way he'll be able to put himself in a position to make another run at Wimbledon.

Also coming with the final appearance at Indian Wells was a jump in the rankings from #8 to #5, is biggest single week jump since 2002. He will go up to #4 after Miami if Ferrer doesn't reach the final and Berdych doesn't win, which would be a great feat and something to be proud of after a tough season in 2013.

Alright, onto Miami.

First up, the Fed will face Dr. Ivo, the man that dissects mere mortals with his serves and laughs them off keel with his humour. The big guy is always dangerous with his serves but whenever Roger faces him, he tends to bring out the best in his returning ability. I expect nothing less in this one.

Should he get by that, Fernando Verdasco could await in the third round. Verdasco had a solid week in Indian Wells, but should be no match for an in-form Roger, especially since the Spaniard isn't the player he once was in 2009-2010. Richard Gasquet could be a tough 4th round opponent, but the Frenchman hasn't given Roger any trouble on hardcourt since 2006 (the only time he troubled Fed on the surface).  Kevin Anderson could also be a round of 16 opponent, whom Fed easily dispatched in the quarters last week.  Ferrer is the highest seed in the quarters, but he is coming off an injury and he may have the dangerous Dimitrov in his path.  And Roger get by all that, he'll likely face Djokovic for the 3rd time this year in the semis.

All things considered, it would be a disappointment not to make the semis given his form and the fact he got Ferrer in his quarter and not Nadal or Djokovic. Miami has not been the happiest of hunting grounds for Fed, not having made the final since his 2nd title win there in 2006. But when he's playing well, as he is now, he can definitely make a great run. I don't think he'd have any chance against Nadal on the slow courts at Key Biscayne, but against Djokovic he always has a chance no matter what the conditions are.

Here's to an entertaining tournament and to Roger entering the top 4 once again (hopefully!).